Dow Jones Index Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for Dow Jones Islamic is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Dow Jones 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dow Jones Islamic on the next trading day is expected to be 12,156 with a mean absolute deviation of 104.05, mean absolute percentage error of 19,702, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,931.

Dow Jones Index Forecast Pattern

Dow Jones Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dow Jones index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dow Jones index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Dow Jones. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Dow Jones Islamic and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Dow Jones

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dow Jones Islamic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Dow Jones

For every potential investor in Dow, whether a beginner or expert, Dow Jones' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dow Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dow Jones' price trends.

Dow Jones Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dow Jones Islamic Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dow Jones' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dow Jones' current price.

Dow Jones Market Strength Events

Dow Jones Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.