INA Industrija Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

INA Stock   454.00  2.00  0.44%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of INA Industrija Nafte dd on the next trading day is expected to be 457.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 409.00. INA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast INA Industrija stock prices and determine the direction of INA Industrija Nafte dd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of INA Industrija's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for INA Industrija Nafte dd is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

INA Industrija 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of INA Industrija Nafte dd on the next trading day is expected to be 457.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.18, mean absolute percentage error of 71.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 409.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INA Industrija's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

INA Industrija Stock Forecast Pattern

INA Industrija Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting INA Industrija's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. INA Industrija's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 455.35 and 459.65, respectively. We have considered INA Industrija's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
454.00
455.35
Downside
457.50
Expected Value
459.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INA Industrija stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INA Industrija stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0271
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.3684
MADMean absolute deviation7.1754
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors409.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of INA Industrija. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for INA Industrija Nafte dd and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for INA Industrija

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as INA Industrija Nafte. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
451.85454.00456.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
386.35388.50499.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as INA Industrija. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against INA Industrija's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, INA Industrija's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in INA Industrija Nafte.

Other Forecasting Options for INA Industrija

For every potential investor in INA, whether a beginner or expert, INA Industrija's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. INA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in INA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying INA Industrija's price trends.

INA Industrija Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with INA Industrija stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of INA Industrija could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing INA Industrija by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

INA Industrija Nafte Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of INA Industrija's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of INA Industrija's current price.

INA Industrija Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how INA Industrija stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading INA Industrija shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying INA Industrija stock market strength indicators, traders can identify INA Industrija Nafte dd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

INA Industrija Risk Indicators

The analysis of INA Industrija's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in INA Industrija's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in INA Stock

INA Industrija financial ratios help investors to determine whether INA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in INA with respect to the benefits of owning INA Industrija security.