John Hancock Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for John Hancock - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When John Hancock prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in John Hancock price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of John Hancock Variable.

John Hancock Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of John Hancock Variable on the next trading day is expected to be 22.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.68.

John Hancock Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

John Hancock Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Hancock mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Hancock mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past John Hancock observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older John Hancock Variable observations.

Predictive Modules for John Hancock

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Variable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 21.43 22.26 23.09 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 21.26 22.09 22.92 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 21.18 21.82 22.46 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as John Hancock. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against John Hancock's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, John Hancock's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in John Hancock Variable.

Other Forecasting Options for John Hancock

For every potential investor in John, whether a beginner or expert, John Hancock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. John Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in John. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying John Hancock's price trends.

John Hancock Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

John Hancock Variable Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of John Hancock's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of John Hancock's current price.

John Hancock Market Strength Events

John Hancock Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in John Mutual Fund