KAR Auction Stock Forward View
| KARDelisted Stock | USD 30.88 0.19 0.62% |
KAR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of KAR Auction's stock price is slightly above 69. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling KAR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using KAR Auction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of KAR Auction Services from the perspective of KAR Auction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 30.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.74. KAR Auction after-hype prediction price | USD 30.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
KAR |
KAR Auction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine KAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for KAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze KAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KAR Auction Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 30.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KAR Auction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KAR Auction Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KAR Auction | KAR Auction Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KAR Auction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KAR Auction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9302 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2745 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.7434 |
Predictive Modules for KAR Auction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KAR Auction Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.KAR Auction After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of KAR Auction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in KAR Auction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of KAR Auction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
KAR Auction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting KAR Auction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on KAR Auction's historical news coverage. KAR Auction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.10 and 32.40, respectively. We have considered KAR Auction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
KAR Auction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of KAR Auction Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
KAR Auction Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as KAR Auction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading KAR Auction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with KAR Auction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 1.65 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.88 | 30.75 | 0.42 |
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KAR Auction Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February KAR Auction Services is traded for 30.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. KAR is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on KAR Auction is about 757.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.99. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of KAR Auction was now reported as 13.4. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.34. KAR Auction Services last dividend was issued on the 19th of March 2020. The entity had 2642:1000 split on the 28th of June 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.KAR Auction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to KAR Auction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict KAR Auction's future price movements. Getting to know how KAR Auction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how KAR Auction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CARG | CarGurus | 0.25 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.84 | (3.16) | 12.39 | |
| DAN | Dana Inc | 1.05 | 7 per month | 1.34 | 0.21 | 5.08 | (3.03) | 13.40 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.64) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.30 | (2.92) | 8.62 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 0.48 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.83 | (3.06) | 7.72 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.18 | 2.61 | (2.28) | 6.40 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | 0.29 | 8 per month | 1.69 | 0 | 3.92 | (2.87) | 9.77 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.48) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.73 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.75) | 6 per month | 1.95 | 0.18 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 1.64 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.18 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.57 |
KAR Auction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KAR Auction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KAR Auction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KAR Auction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KAR Auction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KAR Auction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KAR Auction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KAR Auction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KAR Auction Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KAR Auction Risk Indicators
The analysis of KAR Auction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KAR Auction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for KAR Auction
The number of cover stories for KAR Auction depends on current market conditions and KAR Auction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that KAR Auction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about KAR Auction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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KAR Auction Short Properties
KAR Auction's future price predictability will typically decrease when KAR Auction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of KAR Auction Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential KAR Auction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KAR Auction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 143 M |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Other Consideration for investing in KAR Stock
If you are still planning to invest in KAR Auction Services check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the KAR Auction's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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