KCB GROUP Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

KCB Stock   1,085  35.06  3.13%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of KCB GROUP LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 1,142 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,136. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast KCB GROUP's stock prices and determine the direction of KCB GROUP LTD's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KCB GROUP's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through KCB GROUP price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

KCB GROUP Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of KCB GROUP LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 1,142 with a mean absolute deviation of 18.32, mean absolute percentage error of 556.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,136.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KCB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KCB GROUP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

KCB GROUP Stock Forecast Pattern

KCB GROUP Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting KCB GROUP's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KCB GROUP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,141 and 1,144, respectively. We have considered KCB GROUP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,085
1,142
Expected Value
1,144
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KCB GROUP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KCB GROUP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.2699
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation18.3178
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors1135.7045
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as KCB GROUP LTD historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for KCB GROUP

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KCB GROUP LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KCB GROUP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for KCB GROUP

For every potential investor in KCB, whether a beginner or expert, KCB GROUP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KCB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KCB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KCB GROUP's price trends.

KCB GROUP Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KCB GROUP stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KCB GROUP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KCB GROUP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

KCB GROUP LTD Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KCB GROUP's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KCB GROUP's current price.

KCB GROUP Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KCB GROUP stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KCB GROUP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KCB GROUP stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KCB GROUP LTD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

KCB GROUP Risk Indicators

The analysis of KCB GROUP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KCB GROUP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kcb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.