Landsea Homes Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LSEADelisted Stock | USD 11.31 0.00 0.00% |
Landsea Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Landsea Homes stock prices and determine the direction of Landsea Homes Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Landsea Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time The value of RSI of Landsea Homes' share price is above 80 . This indicates that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 86
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Landsea Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Landsea Homes Corp from the perspective of Landsea Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Landsea Homes Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.21. Landsea Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 11.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Landsea |
Landsea Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Landsea price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Landsea using various technical indicators. When you analyze Landsea charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Landsea Homes Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Landsea Homes Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Landsea Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Landsea Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Landsea Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Landsea Homes | Landsea Homes Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Landsea Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Landsea Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1757 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0815 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1702 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.21 |
Predictive Modules for Landsea Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Landsea Homes Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Landsea Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Landsea Homes After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Landsea Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Landsea Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Landsea Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Landsea Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Landsea Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Landsea Homes' historical news coverage. Landsea Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.31 and 11.31, respectively. We have considered Landsea Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Landsea Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Landsea Homes Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Landsea Homes Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Landsea Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Landsea Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Landsea Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.31 | 11.31 | 0.00 |
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Landsea Homes Hype Timeline
Landsea Homes Corp is now traded for 11.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Landsea is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Landsea Homes is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.31. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.62. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Landsea Homes Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.6. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing.Landsea Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Landsea Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Landsea Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how Landsea Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Landsea Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HTIA | Healthcare Trust PR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NHPAP | National Healthcare Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.52 | 0.07 | 1.03 | (1.07) | 4.13 | |
| SITC | Site Centers Corp | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.08 | 2.30 | (1.89) | 6.71 | |
| HT | Hersha Hospitality Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HGSH | China HGS Real | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XHG | XChange TECINC | (0.05) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 9.30 | (7.84) | 42.13 | |
| CIAN | Cian PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QK | Q And K | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LUXH | LuxUrban Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Landsea Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Landsea Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Landsea Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Landsea Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Landsea Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Landsea Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Landsea Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Landsea Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Landsea Homes Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Landsea Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Landsea Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Landsea Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting landsea stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.02 | |||
| Variance | 64.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Landsea Homes
The number of cover stories for Landsea Homes depends on current market conditions and Landsea Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Landsea Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Landsea Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Landsea Homes Short Properties
Landsea Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when Landsea Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Landsea Homes Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Landsea Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Landsea Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.3 M |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Other Consideration for investing in Landsea Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Landsea Homes Corp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Landsea Homes' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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