Bank Windu Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MCOR Stock  IDR 80.00  1.00  1.27%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Windu Kentjana on the next trading day is expected to be 79.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.51. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Bank Windu is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank Windu Kentjana value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bank Windu Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Windu Kentjana on the next trading day is expected to be 79.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Windu's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Windu Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bank Windu Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Windu's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Windu's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.25 and 81.38, respectively. We have considered Bank Windu's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
80.00
79.31
Expected Value
81.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Windu stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Windu stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.0298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2824
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors79.507
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bank Windu Kentjana. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bank Windu. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bank Windu

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Windu Kentjana. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.9380.0082.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
65.7667.8388.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
78.3979.3380.28
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Windu

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Windu's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Windu's price trends.

Bank Windu Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Windu stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Windu could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Windu by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Windu Kentjana Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Windu's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Windu's current price.

Bank Windu Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Windu stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Windu shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Windu stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Windu Kentjana entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Windu Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Windu's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Windu's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank Windu financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Windu security.