Melhus Sparebank Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MELG Stock  NOK 159.00  2.50  1.55%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Melhus Sparebank on the next trading day is expected to be 161.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.00. Melhus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Melhus Sparebank price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Melhus Sparebank Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Melhus Sparebank on the next trading day is expected to be 161.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 2.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Melhus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Melhus Sparebank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Melhus Sparebank Stock Forecast Pattern

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Melhus Sparebank Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Melhus Sparebank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Melhus Sparebank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 160.87 and 162.38, respectively. We have considered Melhus Sparebank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
159.00
160.87
Downside
161.63
Expected Value
162.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Melhus Sparebank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Melhus Sparebank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8619
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1967
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors73.0001
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Melhus Sparebank historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Melhus Sparebank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Melhus Sparebank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
158.25159.00159.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
147.26148.01174.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
157.91161.53165.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Melhus Sparebank

For every potential investor in Melhus, whether a beginner or expert, Melhus Sparebank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Melhus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Melhus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Melhus Sparebank's price trends.

Melhus Sparebank Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Melhus Sparebank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Melhus Sparebank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Melhus Sparebank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Melhus Sparebank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Melhus Sparebank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Melhus Sparebank's current price.

Melhus Sparebank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Melhus Sparebank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Melhus Sparebank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Melhus Sparebank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Melhus Sparebank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Melhus Sparebank Risk Indicators

The analysis of Melhus Sparebank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Melhus Sparebank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting melhus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Melhus Stock

Melhus Sparebank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Melhus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Melhus with respect to the benefits of owning Melhus Sparebank security.