Metropolitan Kentjana Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MKPI Stock  IDR 25,950  25.00  0.1%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 25,565 with a mean absolute deviation of 268.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16,404. Metropolitan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Metropolitan Kentjana price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Metropolitan Kentjana Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 25,565 with a mean absolute deviation of 268.91, mean absolute percentage error of 113,053, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16,404.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metropolitan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metropolitan Kentjana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Metropolitan Kentjana Stock Forecast Pattern

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Metropolitan Kentjana Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Metropolitan Kentjana's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Metropolitan Kentjana's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25,564 and 25,566, respectively. We have considered Metropolitan Kentjana's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25,950
25,564
Downside
25,565
Expected Value
25,566
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metropolitan Kentjana stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metropolitan Kentjana stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.7461
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation268.9144
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors16403.7811
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Metropolitan Kentjana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25,94925,95025,951
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25,94325,94428,545
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24,48625,47826,469
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Metropolitan Kentjana

For every potential investor in Metropolitan, whether a beginner or expert, Metropolitan Kentjana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Metropolitan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Metropolitan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Metropolitan Kentjana's price trends.

Metropolitan Kentjana Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metropolitan Kentjana stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metropolitan Kentjana could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metropolitan Kentjana by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Metropolitan Kentjana's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Metropolitan Kentjana's current price.

Metropolitan Kentjana Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metropolitan Kentjana stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metropolitan Kentjana shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metropolitan Kentjana stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Metropolitan Kentjana Risk Indicators

The analysis of Metropolitan Kentjana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Metropolitan Kentjana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metropolitan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Metropolitan Stock

Metropolitan Kentjana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Metropolitan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Metropolitan with respect to the benefits of owning Metropolitan Kentjana security.