Western Asset Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| MNPDelisted Fund | USD 11.84 0.00 0.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Western Asset Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66. Western Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Western |
Western Asset Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Western Asset Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Western Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Western Asset's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Western Asset Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Western Asset | Western Asset Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Western Asset fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Western Asset fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1203 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0599 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0052 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.6555 |
Predictive Modules for Western Asset
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Asset Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.View Western Asset Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Western Asset Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Western Asset fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Western Asset shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Western Asset fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Western Asset Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0059 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.86 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) |
Western Asset Risk Indicators
The analysis of Western Asset's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Western Asset's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting western fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3736 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5558 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4827 | |||
| Variance | 0.233 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3674 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3089 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Western Asset
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Western Asset position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Western Asset will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Western Fund
| 0.47 | MCD | McDonalds Fiscal Year End 3rd of February 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | DD | Dupont De Nemours Fiscal Year End 4th of February 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | PFE | Pfizer Inc Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp Fiscal Year End 7th of February 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | GE | GE Aerospace Fiscal Year End 28th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Western Asset could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Western Asset when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Western Asset - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Western Asset Municipal to buy it.
The correlation of Western Asset is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Western Asset moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Western Asset Municipal moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Western Asset can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Other Consideration for investing in Western Fund
If you are still planning to invest in Western Asset Municipal check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Western Asset's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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