Marshall Boya Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MRSHL Stock  TRY 1,640  46.00  2.73%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marshall Boya ve on the next trading day is expected to be 1,796 with a mean absolute deviation of 63.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,937. Marshall Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marshall Boya's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Marshall Boya is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marshall Boya ve value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Marshall Boya Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marshall Boya ve on the next trading day is expected to be 1,796 with a mean absolute deviation of 63.50, mean absolute percentage error of 7,663, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,937.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marshall Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marshall Boya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marshall Boya Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Marshall BoyaMarshall Boya Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Marshall Boya Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marshall Boya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marshall Boya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,793 and 1,800, respectively. We have considered Marshall Boya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,640
1,796
Expected Value
1,800
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marshall Boya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marshall Boya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.8926
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation63.5019
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0393
SAESum of the absolute errors3937.1186
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marshall Boya ve. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Marshall Boya. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Marshall Boya

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marshall Boya ve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,6371,6401,643
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,5381,5421,804
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,5291,6061,682
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Marshall Boya

For every potential investor in Marshall, whether a beginner or expert, Marshall Boya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marshall Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marshall. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marshall Boya's price trends.

Marshall Boya Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marshall Boya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marshall Boya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marshall Boya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marshall Boya ve Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marshall Boya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marshall Boya's current price.

Marshall Boya Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marshall Boya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marshall Boya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marshall Boya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marshall Boya ve entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marshall Boya Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marshall Boya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marshall Boya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marshall stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Other Information on Investing in Marshall Stock

Marshall Boya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Marshall Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Marshall with respect to the benefits of owning Marshall Boya security.