Mechel OAO Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mechel OAO on the next trading day is expected to be -1.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.10. Mechel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Mechel OAO Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mechel OAO on the next trading day is expected to be -1.1 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mechel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mechel OAO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mechel OAO Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mechel OAO stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mechel OAO stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 64.8088 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2456 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.1035 |
Predictive Modules for Mechel OAO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mechel OAO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mechel OAO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mechel OAO Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mechel OAO stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mechel OAO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mechel OAO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
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Other Consideration for investing in Mechel Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Mechel OAO check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Mechel OAO's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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