Mhlbauer Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MUB Stock | 36.60 1.20 3.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mhlbauer Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 36.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.20. Mhlbauer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Mhlbauer |
Mhlbauer Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mhlbauer Holding AG on the next trading day is expected to be 36.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mhlbauer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mhlbauer Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mhlbauer Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mhlbauer Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mhlbauer Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mhlbauer Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.71 and 38.49, respectively. We have considered Mhlbauer Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mhlbauer Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mhlbauer Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0943 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2567 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6367 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.2 |
Predictive Modules for Mhlbauer Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mhlbauer Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mhlbauer Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Mhlbauer Holding
For every potential investor in Mhlbauer, whether a beginner or expert, Mhlbauer Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mhlbauer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mhlbauer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mhlbauer Holding's price trends.Mhlbauer Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mhlbauer Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mhlbauer Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mhlbauer Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mhlbauer Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mhlbauer Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mhlbauer Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Mhlbauer Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mhlbauer Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mhlbauer Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mhlbauer Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mhlbauer Holding AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mhlbauer Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mhlbauer Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mhlbauer Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mhlbauer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Mhlbauer Stock Analysis
When running Mhlbauer Holding's price analysis, check to measure Mhlbauer Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mhlbauer Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Mhlbauer Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mhlbauer Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mhlbauer Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mhlbauer Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.