Metropolitan West Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MWIMXDelisted Fund | USD 9.44 0.00 0.00% |
Metropolitan Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Metropolitan West's share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Metropolitan West, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Metropolitan West hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Metropolitan West Intermediate from the perspective of Metropolitan West response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metropolitan West Intermediate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.58. Metropolitan West after-hype prediction price | USD 9.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Metropolitan |
Metropolitan West Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Metropolitan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Metropolitan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Metropolitan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Metropolitan West Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metropolitan West Intermediate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 27.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metropolitan Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metropolitan West's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Metropolitan West Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Metropolitan West | Metropolitan West Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metropolitan West mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metropolitan West mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5791 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.093 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.04 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.58 |
Predictive Modules for Metropolitan West
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metropolitan West. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Metropolitan West After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Metropolitan West at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Metropolitan West or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Metropolitan West, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Metropolitan West Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Metropolitan West's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Metropolitan West's historical news coverage. Metropolitan West's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.44 and 9.44, respectively. We have considered Metropolitan West's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Metropolitan West is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Metropolitan West is based on 3 months time horizon.
Metropolitan West Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Metropolitan West is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Metropolitan West backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Metropolitan West, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.44 | 9.44 | 0.00 |
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Metropolitan West Hype Timeline
Metropolitan West is now traded for 9.44. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Metropolitan is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Metropolitan West is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.44. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.Metropolitan West Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Metropolitan West's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Metropolitan West's future price movements. Getting to know how Metropolitan West's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Metropolitan West may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FCMAX | Fidelity California Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.59) | 0.24 | (0.16) | 0.64 | |
| PRFHX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.47) | 0.27 | (0.18) | 0.81 | |
| TWTIX | Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.62) | 0.19 | (0.09) | 0.65 | |
| JHSFX | John Hancock Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.64) | 0.20 | (0.10) | 0.49 | |
| BIDPX | Ishares Municipal Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.68) | 0.27 | (0.09) | 0.64 | |
| SMAAX | Aig Government Money | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.65) | 0.20 | (0.10) | 0.48 | |
| PCMNX | Pace Municipal Fixed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.76) | 0.08 | (0.16) | 0.48 |
Metropolitan West Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metropolitan West mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metropolitan West could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metropolitan West by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Metropolitan West Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metropolitan West mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metropolitan West shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metropolitan West mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Metropolitan West Intermediate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Story Coverage note for Metropolitan West
The number of cover stories for Metropolitan West depends on current market conditions and Metropolitan West's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Metropolitan West is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Metropolitan West's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Other Consideration for investing in Metropolitan Mutual Fund
If you are still planning to invest in Metropolitan West check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Metropolitan West's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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