Nigerian Stock Index Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| NGSEASI Index | 97,507 276.94 0.28% |
Nigerian Stock 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nigerian Stock Exchange on the next trading day is expected to be 97,524 with a mean absolute deviation of 412.64, mean absolute percentage error of 255,402, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23,521.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nigerian Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nigerian Stock's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nigerian Stock Index Forecast Pattern
Nigerian Stock Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nigerian Stock's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nigerian Stock's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97,523 and 97,524, respectively. We have considered Nigerian Stock's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nigerian Stock index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nigerian Stock index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2096 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -46.0758 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 412.6444 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0042 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23520.73 |
Predictive Modules for Nigerian Stock
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nigerian Stock Exchange. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nigerian Stock. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nigerian Stock's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nigerian Stock's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nigerian Stock Exchange.Other Forecasting Options for Nigerian Stock
For every potential investor in Nigerian, whether a beginner or expert, Nigerian Stock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nigerian Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nigerian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nigerian Stock's price trends.Nigerian Stock Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nigerian Stock index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nigerian Stock could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nigerian Stock by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nigerian Stock Exchange Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nigerian Stock's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nigerian Stock's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nigerian Stock Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nigerian Stock index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nigerian Stock shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nigerian Stock index market strength indicators, traders can identify Nigerian Stock Exchange entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0056 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 97610.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 97576.02 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 549.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (242.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (276.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.45 |
Nigerian Stock Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nigerian Stock's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nigerian Stock's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nigerian index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2756 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3433 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3485 | |||
| Variance | 0.1214 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1495 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1178 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.