Onconova Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ONTXDelisted Stock | USD 1.02 0.04 3.77% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Onconova Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.98. Onconova Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Onconova |
Onconova Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Onconova Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Onconova Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Onconova Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Onconova Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Onconova Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Onconova Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6076 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0415 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.9837 |
Predictive Modules for Onconova Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Onconova Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Onconova Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Onconova Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Onconova Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Onconova Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Onconova Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Onconova Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Onconova Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Onconova Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Onconova Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Onconova Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting onconova stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.91 | |||
| Variance | 79.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Other Consideration for investing in Onconova Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Onconova Therapeutics check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Onconova Therapeutics' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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