Aura Minerals Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ORAAFDelisted Stock | USD 34.65 1.33 3.99% |
Aura Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aura Minerals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Aura Minerals' pink sheet price is roughly 63. This indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of 26th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aura, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aura Minerals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aura Minerals from the perspective of Aura Minerals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aura Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 35.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.06. Aura Minerals after-hype prediction price | USD 34.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aura |
Aura Minerals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aura price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aura using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aura charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aura Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aura Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 35.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aura Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aura Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aura Minerals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aura Minerals | Aura Minerals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aura Minerals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aura Minerals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7451 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6731 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.0595 |
Predictive Modules for Aura Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aura Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aura Minerals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aura Minerals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aura Minerals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Aura Minerals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aura Minerals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aura Minerals' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aura Minerals' historical news coverage. Aura Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.65 and 34.65, respectively. We have considered Aura Minerals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aura Minerals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aura Minerals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aura Minerals Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aura Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aura Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aura Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.65 | 34.65 | 0.00 |
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Aura Minerals Hype Timeline
Aura Minerals is now traded for 34.65. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aura is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aura Minerals is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.65. About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Aura Minerals last dividend was issued on the 22nd of December 2022. The entity had 15:1 split on the 26th of August 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.Aura Minerals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aura Minerals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aura Minerals' future price movements. Getting to know how Aura Minerals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aura Minerals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CXBMF | Calibre Mining Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.07 | (0.01) | 5.63 | (5.12) | 19.01 | |
| CELTF | Centamin Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| RTRFF | Rumble Resources Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 609.68 | |
| AZZVF | AVZ Minerals Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EVRZF | EVRAZ Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GRLGF | Greatland Gold Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.15 | 0.14 | 10.53 | (11.76) | 30.08 | |
| HCPHY | Holcim Philippines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| KOZAY | Koza Altin Islemeleri | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UBEOF | Ube Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ADMLF | Adriatic Metals Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.09 | 4.92 | (4.41) | 11.45 |
Aura Minerals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aura Minerals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aura Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aura Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aura Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aura Minerals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aura Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aura Minerals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Aura Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aura Minerals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aura Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aura Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aura pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.91 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aura Minerals
The number of cover stories for Aura Minerals depends on current market conditions and Aura Minerals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aura Minerals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aura Minerals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aura Minerals Short Properties
Aura Minerals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aura Minerals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aura Minerals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aura Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aura Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 85.6 M |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Other Consideration for investing in Aura Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Aura Minerals check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Aura Minerals' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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