Polen Smid Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

PBMIXDelisted Fund  USD 53.66  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Polen Smid on the next trading day is expected to be 58.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.48. Polen Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Polen Smid's share price is below 20 indicating that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Polen Smid's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Polen Smid, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Polen Smid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Polen Smid from the perspective of Polen Smid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Polen Smid on the next trading day is expected to be 58.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.48.

Polen Smid after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 53.66  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.

Polen Smid Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Polen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Polen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Polen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Polen Smid is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Polen Smid value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Polen Smid Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Polen Smid on the next trading day is expected to be 58.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.76, mean absolute percentage error of 25.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 229.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Polen Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Polen Smid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Polen Smid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Polen SmidPolen Smid Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Polen Smid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Polen Smid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3531
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.762
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2844
SAESum of the absolute errors229.4814
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Polen Smid. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Polen Smid. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Polen Smid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Polen Smid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
50.2853.6657.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
41.4444.8259.03
Details

Polen Smid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Polen Smid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Polen Smid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Polen Smid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Polen Smid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Polen Smid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Polen Smid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Polen Smid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Polen Smid entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Polen Smid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Polen Smid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Polen Smid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting polen mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Other Consideration for investing in Polen Mutual Fund

If you are still planning to invest in Polen Smid check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Polen Smid's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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