Origin Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| POEYXDelisted Fund | USD 10.66 0.00 0.00% |
Origin Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Origin Emerging's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Origin Emerging, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Origin Emerging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Emerging Markets from the perspective of Origin Emerging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Origin Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 10.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.56. Origin Emerging after-hype prediction price | USD 10.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Origin |
Origin Emerging Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Emerging Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Origin Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 10.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Emerging | Origin Emerging Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4913 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0748 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.565 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Emerging
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Origin Emerging After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Origin Emerging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Emerging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Origin Emerging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Origin Emerging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Origin Emerging's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Emerging's historical news coverage. Origin Emerging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.66 and 10.66, respectively. We have considered Origin Emerging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Origin Emerging is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Emerging Markets is based on 3 months time horizon.
Origin Emerging Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Origin Emerging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Emerging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Emerging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.66 | 10.66 | 0.00 |
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Origin Emerging Hype Timeline
Origin Emerging Markets is at this time traded for 10.66. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Origin is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Origin Emerging is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.66. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.7. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Origin Emerging Markets last dividend was issued on the 27th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in services.Origin Emerging Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Emerging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Emerging's future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Emerging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Emerging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| REMVX | Rbc Emerging Markets | (1.66) | 2 per month | 0.14 | 0.22 | 1.24 | (0.82) | 2.94 | |
| MKDCX | Blackrock Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.54 | 0.12 | 1.47 | (1.13) | 3.38 | |
| FEMDX | Franklin Emerging Market | (11.64) | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.48 | (0.24) | 1.12 | |
| TEOJX | Transamerica Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.14 | 1.17 | (1.14) | 3.17 | |
| USMIX | Extended Market Index | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.12 | 1.92 | (1.49) | 5.37 | |
| GMAQX | Gmo Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1.25 | (0.93) | 5.20 | |
| SFGIX | Seafarer Overseas Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1.16 | (0.99) | 2.39 |
Origin Emerging Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Emerging mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Emerging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Emerging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Emerging Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Emerging mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Emerging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Emerging mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Emerging Markets entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Origin Emerging Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Emerging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Emerging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4987 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7288 | |||
| Variance | 0.5311 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Origin Emerging
The number of cover stories for Origin Emerging depends on current market conditions and Origin Emerging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Emerging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Emerging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in services. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Other Consideration for investing in Origin Mutual Fund
If you are still planning to invest in Origin Emerging Markets check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Origin Emerging's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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