Money Market Money Market Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Summary

POPXXDelisted Fund

5.14 0.00 0.00%

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Money Market Obligations on the next trading day is expected to be 4.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.32. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Money Market's fund prices and determine the direction of Money Market Obligations's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.

A naive forecasting model for Money Market is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Money Market Obligations value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

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Money Market Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Money Market Obligations on the next trading day is expected to be 4.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.32.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Money Money Market Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Money Market's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Money Market Money Market Fund Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Money Market money market fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Money Market money market fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	117.865
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.3822
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.2283
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	23.3168

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Money Market Obligations. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Money Market. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Money Market

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Money Market Obligations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the money market fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the money market fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Money Market's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Money Market Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Money Market money market fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Money Market could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Money Market by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Ab Small Cap T Rowe Price Victory Rs Small Legg Mason Partners Chartwell Small Cap Fisher Small Cap Qs Small Capitalization Jpmorgan Small Cap American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

Money Market Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Money Market money market fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Money Market shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Money Market money market fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Money Market Obligations entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	5.14
	Day Typical Price	5.14
	Relative Strength Index	23.54

Money Market Risk Indicators

The analysis of Money Market's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Money Market's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting money money market fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	36.05
	Standard Deviation	88.81
	Variance	7887.3

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

V	Visa Class A
GOOG	Alphabet Inc Class C
GOOG	Alphabet Inc Class C

Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any money market fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in interest.

You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Other Consideration for investing in Money Money Market Fund

If you are still planning to invest in Money Market Obligations check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Money Market's history and understand the potential risks before investing.

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