Teachers Insurance Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

QREARX Fund  USD 460.63  0.01  0%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Teachers Insurance And on the next trading day is expected to be 460.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.32. Teachers Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Teachers Insurance simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Teachers Insurance And are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Teachers Insurance And prices get older.

Teachers Insurance Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Teachers Insurance And on the next trading day is expected to be 460.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Teachers Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Teachers Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Teachers Insurance Fund Forecast Pattern

Teachers Insurance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Teachers Insurance's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Teachers Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 460.54 and 460.72, respectively. We have considered Teachers Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
460.63
460.54
Downside
460.63
Expected Value
460.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Teachers Insurance fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Teachers Insurance fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0297
MADMean absolute deviation0.222
MAPEMean absolute percentage error5.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors13.32
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Teachers Insurance And forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Teachers Insurance observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Teachers Insurance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Teachers Insurance And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
460.54460.63460.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
460.04460.13506.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
460.19460.46460.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Teachers Insurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Teachers Insurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Teachers Insurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Teachers Insurance And.

Other Forecasting Options for Teachers Insurance

For every potential investor in Teachers, whether a beginner or expert, Teachers Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Teachers Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Teachers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Teachers Insurance's price trends.

Teachers Insurance Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Teachers Insurance fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Teachers Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Teachers Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Teachers Insurance And Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Teachers Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Teachers Insurance's current price.

Teachers Insurance Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Teachers Insurance fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Teachers Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Teachers Insurance fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Teachers Insurance And entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Teachers Insurance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Teachers Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Teachers Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting teachers fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Teachers Fund

Teachers Insurance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Teachers Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Teachers with respect to the benefits of owning Teachers Insurance security.
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