Regulus Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RGLSDelisted Stock | USD 8.16 0.01 0.12% |
Regulus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The value of RSI of Regulus Therapeutics' share price is above 80 indicating that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 85
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Regulus Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Regulus Therapeutics from the perspective of Regulus Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regulus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.33. Regulus Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 8.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Regulus |
Regulus Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Regulus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Regulus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Regulus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Regulus Therapeutics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regulus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Regulus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Regulus Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Regulus Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Regulus Therapeutics | Regulus Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Regulus Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Regulus Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0886 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1581 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0338 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.33 |
Predictive Modules for Regulus Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Regulus Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Regulus Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Regulus Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Regulus Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Regulus Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Regulus Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Regulus Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Regulus Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Regulus Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.16 and 8.16, respectively. We have considered Regulus Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Regulus Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Regulus Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Regulus Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Regulus Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Regulus Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Regulus Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.16 | 8.16 | 0.00 |
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Regulus Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Regulus Therapeutics is at this time traded for 8.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Regulus is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Regulus Therapeutics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.16. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.68. Regulus Therapeutics last dividend was issued on the 4th of October 2018. The entity had 1:10 split on the 29th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.Regulus Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Regulus Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Regulus Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Regulus Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Regulus Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SAGE | Sage Therapeutics | 0.06 | 8 per month | 1.70 | 0.04 | 3.61 | (3.48) | 37.83 | |
| IVVD | Invivyd | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.14 | (7.07) | 34.45 | |
| EXAI | Exscientia Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SPRY | ARS Pharmaceuticals | 0.35 | 7 per month | 4.31 | 0.04 | 8.29 | (7.26) | 32.13 | |
| APEN | Apollo Endosurgery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NAGE | Niagen Bioscience | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.20 | (4.30) | 12.21 | |
| ITOS | Iteos Therapeutics | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.43 | (0.11) | 1.09 | (0.79) | 3.17 | |
| SVA | Sinovac Biotech | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ACCD | Accolade | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.58 | (0.29) | 105.21 | |
| GTHX | G1 Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Regulus Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Regulus Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Regulus Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Regulus Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Regulus Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Regulus Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Regulus Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Regulus Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Regulus Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Regulus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Regulus Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Regulus Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting regulus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 17.58 | |||
| Variance | 309.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Regulus Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Regulus Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Regulus Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Regulus Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Regulus Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Regulus Therapeutics Short Properties
Regulus Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Regulus Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Regulus Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Regulus Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Regulus Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.8 M |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Other Consideration for investing in Regulus Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Regulus Therapeutics check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Regulus Therapeutics' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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