RTL Group Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RRTL Stock  EUR 29.17  0.32  1.11%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RTL Group SA on the next trading day is expected to be 29.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.05. RTL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of RTL Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for RTL Group - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When RTL Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in RTL Group price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of RTL Group SA.

RTL Group Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RTL Group SA on the next trading day is expected to be 29.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RTL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RTL Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

RTL Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RTL Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RTL Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.043
MADMean absolute deviation0.289
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0096
SAESum of the absolute errors17.0522
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past RTL Group observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older RTL Group SA observations.

Predictive Modules for RTL Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RTL Group SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.1729.1729.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.2529.8029.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.2729.0330.78
Details

RTL Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RTL Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RTL Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RTL Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

RTL Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RTL Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RTL Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RTL Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RTL Group SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in RTL Stock

RTL Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether RTL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RTL with respect to the benefits of owning RTL Group security.