Short Duration Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Short Duration - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Short Duration prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Short Duration price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Short Duration Bond.

Short Duration Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Short Duration Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 18.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98.

Short Duration Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Short Duration

Short Duration Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Short Duration Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Short Duration mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Short Duration mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Short Duration observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Short Duration Bond observations.

Predictive Modules for Short Duration

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Short Duration Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 18.24 18.34 18.44 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 18.27 18.37 18.47 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 18.32 18.38 18.44 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Short Duration

For every potential investor in Short, whether a beginner or expert, Short Duration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Short Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Short. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Short Duration's price trends.

Short Duration Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Short Duration Bond Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Short Duration's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Short Duration's current price.

Short Duration Market Strength Events

Short Duration Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Short Mutual Fund