REGION GROUP Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

S590 Stock   1.32  0.01  0.75%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REGION GROUP STAPLED on the next trading day is expected to be 1.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67. REGION Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of REGION GROUP's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
REGION GROUP simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for REGION GROUP STAPLED are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as REGION GROUP STAPLED prices get older.

REGION GROUP Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of REGION GROUP STAPLED on the next trading day is expected to be 1.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REGION Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that REGION GROUP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

REGION GROUP Stock Forecast Pattern

REGION GROUP Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting REGION GROUP's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. REGION GROUP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.20 and 2.44, respectively. We have considered REGION GROUP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.32
1.32
Expected Value
2.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of REGION GROUP stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent REGION GROUP stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.6176
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.011
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0082
SAESum of the absolute errors0.67
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting REGION GROUP STAPLED forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent REGION GROUP observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for REGION GROUP

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as REGION GROUP STAPLED. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.201.322.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.221.342.46
Details

Other Forecasting Options for REGION GROUP

For every potential investor in REGION, whether a beginner or expert, REGION GROUP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. REGION Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in REGION. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying REGION GROUP's price trends.

REGION GROUP Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with REGION GROUP stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of REGION GROUP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing REGION GROUP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

REGION GROUP STAPLED Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of REGION GROUP's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of REGION GROUP's current price.

REGION GROUP Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how REGION GROUP stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading REGION GROUP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying REGION GROUP stock market strength indicators, traders can identify REGION GROUP STAPLED entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

REGION GROUP Risk Indicators

The analysis of REGION GROUP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in REGION GROUP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting region stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in REGION Stock

REGION GROUP financial ratios help investors to determine whether REGION Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in REGION with respect to the benefits of owning REGION GROUP security.