SPTSX 60 Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SPTSX60 Index | 1,525 6.00 0.40% |
SPTSX 60 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of SPTSX 60 INDEX on the next trading day is expected to be 1,518 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.03, mean absolute percentage error of 190.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 672.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPTSX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPTSX 60's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SPTSX 60 Index Forecast Pattern
SPTSX 60 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SPTSX 60's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPTSX 60's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,518 and 1,519, respectively. We have considered SPTSX 60's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPTSX 60 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPTSX 60 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.3612 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.0279 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 672.7003 |
Predictive Modules for SPTSX 60
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPTSX 60 INDEX. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPTSX 60's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for SPTSX 60
For every potential investor in SPTSX, whether a beginner or expert, SPTSX 60's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPTSX Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPTSX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPTSX 60's price trends.SPTSX 60 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPTSX 60 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPTSX 60 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPTSX 60 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPTSX 60 INDEX Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SPTSX 60's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SPTSX 60's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SPTSX 60 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPTSX 60 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPTSX 60 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPTSX 60 index market strength indicators, traders can identify SPTSX 60 INDEX entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SPTSX 60 Risk Indicators
The analysis of SPTSX 60's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPTSX 60's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sptsx index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5004 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7222 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6689 | |||
| Variance | 0.4474 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5825 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5216 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.