Santech Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| STECDelisted Stock | 1.53 0.45 41.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Santech Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85. Santech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Santech Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Santech Holdings Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Santech Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Santech Holdings' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Santech Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Santech Holdings Limited from the perspective of Santech Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Santech Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85. Santech Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 1.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Santech |
Santech Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Santech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Santech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Santech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Santech Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Santech Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Santech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Santech Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Santech Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Santech Holdings | Santech Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Santech Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Santech Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0159 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0959 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0927 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.8493 |
Predictive Modules for Santech Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Santech Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Santech Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Santech Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Santech Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Santech Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Santech Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Santech Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Santech Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Santech Holdings' historical news coverage. Santech Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 14.05, respectively. We have considered Santech Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Santech Holdings is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Santech Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Santech Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Santech Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Santech Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Santech Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.20 | 12.51 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.53 | 1.54 | 0.65 |
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Santech Holdings Hype Timeline
Santech Holdings is at this time traded for 1.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Santech is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.65%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.2%. The volatility of related hype on Santech Holdings is about 12028.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.41. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 28.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (743 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.67 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.Santech Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Santech Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Santech Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Santech Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Santech Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMST | Amesite Operating Co | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.82 | (8.49) | 30.71 | |
| CXAI | CXApp Inc | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 8.11 | (10.87) | 36.84 | |
| CNTM | ConnectM Technology Solutions | 0.02 | 2 per month | 9.41 | 0.06 | 22.73 | (15.38) | 54.57 | |
| TGHL | The GrowHub Limited | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.53 | (9.09) | 28.46 | |
| ELWS | Earlyworks Co Ltd | (0.54) | 7 per month | 5.93 | 0.14 | 11.79 | (10.96) | 52.87 | |
| SMSI | Smith Micro Software | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.56 | (6.35) | 19.70 | |
| BLIN | Bridgeline Digital | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.10 | (7.78) | 22.82 | |
| WCT | Wellchange Holdings | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 5.56 | (7.41) | 29.28 | |
| DTSS | Datasea | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 14.63 | (12.60) | 31.30 | |
| IPM | Intelligent Protection Management | (0.14) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.65 | (2.86) | 13.88 |
Santech Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Santech Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Santech Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Santech Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Santech Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Santech Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Santech Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Santech Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Santech Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Santech Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Santech Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Santech Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting santech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.47 | |||
| Variance | 109.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 33.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 29.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Santech Holdings
The number of cover stories for Santech Holdings depends on current market conditions and Santech Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Santech Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Santech Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Santech Holdings Short Properties
Santech Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Santech Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Santech Holdings Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Santech Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Santech Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.2 M |
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Other Consideration for investing in Santech Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Santech Holdings check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Santech Holdings' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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