Transamerica Intl Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Transamerica Intl - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Transamerica Intl prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Transamerica Intl price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Transamerica Intl Equity.

Transamerica Intl Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transamerica Intl Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.46.

Transamerica Intl Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Transamerica Intl mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Transamerica Intl mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Transamerica Intl observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Transamerica Intl Equity observations.

Predictive Modules for Transamerica Intl

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transamerica Intl Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 21.76 21.76 21.76 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 21.72 21.72 23.94 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 20.44 21.08 21.72 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Transamerica Intl. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Transamerica Intl's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Transamerica Intl's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Transamerica Intl Equity.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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