Taiwan Weighted Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TWII Index | 23,525 52.74 0.22% |
Taiwan Weighted Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Taiwan Weighted on the next trading day is expected to be 23,525 with a mean absolute deviation of 183.34, mean absolute percentage error of 58,553, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,000.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Taiwan Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Taiwan Weighted's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Taiwan Weighted Index Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Taiwan Weighted index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Taiwan Weighted index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 127.2503 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -9.9803 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 183.3367 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11000.2 |
Predictive Modules for Taiwan Weighted
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Taiwan Weighted. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Taiwan Weighted Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Taiwan Weighted index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Taiwan Weighted could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Taiwan Weighted by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Taiwan Weighted Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Taiwan Weighted index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Taiwan Weighted shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Taiwan Weighted index market strength indicators, traders can identify Taiwan Weighted entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0072 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3113 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23557.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23546.72 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 169.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.59) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 52.74 |
Taiwan Weighted Risk Indicators
The analysis of Taiwan Weighted's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Taiwan Weighted's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting taiwan index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7877 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9764 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9876 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9533 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.