Upper Egypt Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

UEFM Stock   297.06  3.02  1.01%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upper Egypt Flour on the next trading day is expected to be 297.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 273.23. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Upper Egypt's stock prices and determine the direction of Upper Egypt Flour's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Upper Egypt's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Upper Egypt works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Upper Egypt Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upper Egypt Flour on the next trading day is expected to be 297.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63, mean absolute percentage error of 158.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 273.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Upper Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Upper Egypt's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Upper Egypt Stock Forecast Pattern

Upper Egypt Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Upper Egypt's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Upper Egypt's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 290.56 and 303.56, respectively. We have considered Upper Egypt's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
297.06
290.56
Downside
297.06
Expected Value
303.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Upper Egypt stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Upper Egypt stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.1686
MADMean absolute deviation4.631
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0183
SAESum of the absolute errors273.23
When Upper Egypt Flour prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Upper Egypt Flour trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Upper Egypt observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Upper Egypt

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Upper Egypt Flour. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Upper Egypt

For every potential investor in Upper, whether a beginner or expert, Upper Egypt's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Upper Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Upper. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Upper Egypt's price trends.

Upper Egypt Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Upper Egypt stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Upper Egypt could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Upper Egypt by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Upper Egypt Flour Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Upper Egypt's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Upper Egypt's current price.

Upper Egypt Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Upper Egypt stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Upper Egypt shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Upper Egypt stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Upper Egypt Flour entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Upper Egypt Risk Indicators

The analysis of Upper Egypt's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Upper Egypt's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting upper stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.