CONOCOPHILLIPS Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for CONOCOPHILLIPS - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When CONOCOPHILLIPS prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in CONOCOPHILLIPS price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of CONOCOPHILLIPS 415.

CONOCOPHILLIPS Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent on the next trading day is expected to be 94.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.42.

CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond Forecast Pattern

Backtest CONOCOPHILLIPS

CONOCOPHILLIPS Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

CONOCOPHILLIPS Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CONOCOPHILLIPS bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CONOCOPHILLIPS bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past CONOCOPHILLIPS observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 percent observations.

Predictive Modules for CONOCOPHILLIPS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONOCOPHILLIPS 415. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 94.31 95.32 96.33 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 78.76 79.77 104.85 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CONOCOPHILLIPS. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CONOCOPHILLIPS's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CONOCOPHILLIPS's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CONOCOPHILLIPS 415.

Other Forecasting Options for CONOCOPHILLIPS

For every potential investor in CONOCOPHILLIPS, whether a beginner or expert, CONOCOPHILLIPS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CONOCOPHILLIPS's price trends.

CONOCOPHILLIPS Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

CONOCOPHILLIPS 415 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CONOCOPHILLIPS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CONOCOPHILLIPS's current price.

CONOCOPHILLIPS Market Strength Events

CONOCOPHILLIPS Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS Bond