Aquila Tax Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

UTAFXDelisted Fund  USD 9.72  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30. Aquila Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Aquila Tax is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aquila Tax Free value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aquila Tax Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aquila Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aquila Tax's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aquila Tax Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aquila Tax mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aquila Tax mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.793
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0022
SAESum of the absolute errors1.297
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aquila Tax Free. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aquila Tax. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aquila Tax

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aquila Tax Free. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.729.729.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.978.9710.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aquila Tax. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aquila Tax's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aquila Tax's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Aquila Tax Free.

Aquila Tax Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aquila Tax mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aquila Tax could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aquila Tax by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aquila Tax Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aquila Tax mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aquila Tax shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aquila Tax mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aquila Tax Free entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aquila Tax Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aquila Tax's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aquila Tax's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aquila mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Other Consideration for investing in Aquila Mutual Fund

If you are still planning to invest in Aquila Tax Free check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Aquila Tax's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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