VBC Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| VBC Stock | 20,200 100.00 0.50% |
VBC |
VBC 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of VBC on the next trading day is expected to be 20,200 with a mean absolute deviation of 225.00, mean absolute percentage error of 79,879, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12,825.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VBC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VBC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VBC Stock Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VBC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VBC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.0473 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -12.7193 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 225.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12825.0 |
Predictive Modules for VBC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VBC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VBC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VBC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VBC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VBC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VBC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VBC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VBC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VBC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VBC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0446 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1111 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19750.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19900.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 900.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 500.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 100.0 |
VBC Risk Indicators
The analysis of VBC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VBC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vbc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with VBC
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if VBC position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in VBC will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to VBC could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace VBC when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back VBC - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling VBC to buy it.
The correlation of VBC is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as VBC moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if VBC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for VBC can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.