ChengDu Hi (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.95
| 000628 Stock | 58.42 2.31 3.80% |
ChengDu |
ChengDu Hi Target Price Odds to finish below 16.95
The tendency of ChengDu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 16.95 or more in 90 days |
| 58.42 | 90 days | 16.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ChengDu Hi to drop to 16.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ChengDu Hi Tech Development probability density function shows the probability of ChengDu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ChengDu Hi Tech price to stay between 16.95 and its current price of 58.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.28 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ChengDu Hi Tech Development has a beta of -0.43. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ChengDu Hi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ChengDu Hi Tech Development is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ChengDu Hi Tech Development has an alpha of 0.738, implying that it can generate a 0.74 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ChengDu Hi Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ChengDu Hi
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ChengDu Hi Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ChengDu Hi Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ChengDu Hi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ChengDu Hi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ChengDu Hi Tech Development, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ChengDu Hi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 13.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
ChengDu Hi Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ChengDu Hi for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ChengDu Hi Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ChengDu Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| ChengDu Hi Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ChengDu Hi generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
ChengDu Hi Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ChengDu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ChengDu Hi's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ChengDu Hi's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 352.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 89.5 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.15 |
ChengDu Hi Technical Analysis
ChengDu Hi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ChengDu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ChengDu Hi Tech Development. In general, you should focus on analyzing ChengDu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ChengDu Hi Predictive Forecast Models
ChengDu Hi's time-series forecasting models is one of many ChengDu Hi's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ChengDu Hi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ChengDu Hi Tech
Checking the ongoing alerts about ChengDu Hi for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ChengDu Hi Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ChengDu Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| ChengDu Hi Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ChengDu Hi generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in ChengDu Stock
ChengDu Hi financial ratios help investors to determine whether ChengDu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ChengDu with respect to the benefits of owning ChengDu Hi security.