Changchun (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 32.63
| 002338 Stock | 42.84 0.14 0.33% |
Changchun |
Changchun Target Price Odds to finish below 32.63
The tendency of Changchun Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 32.63 or more in 90 days |
| 42.84 | 90 days | 32.63 | about 31.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Changchun to drop to 32.63 or more in 90 days from now is about 31.16 (This Changchun UP Optotech probability density function shows the probability of Changchun Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Changchun UP Optotech price to stay between 32.63 and its current price of 42.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Changchun UP Optotech has a beta of -0.0769. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Changchun are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Changchun UP Optotech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Changchun UP Optotech has an alpha of 0.8687, implying that it can generate a 0.87 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Changchun Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Changchun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Changchun UP Optotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Changchun Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Changchun is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Changchun's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Changchun UP Optotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Changchun within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.87 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Changchun Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Changchun for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Changchun UP Optotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Changchun appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Changchun UP OptotechLtds five-year earnings growth trails the 27 percent YoY shareholder returns - Simply Wall St |
Changchun Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Changchun Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Changchun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Changchun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 240 M |
Changchun Technical Analysis
Changchun's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Changchun Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Changchun UP Optotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Changchun Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Changchun Predictive Forecast Models
Changchun's time-series forecasting models is one of many Changchun's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Changchun's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Changchun UP Optotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Changchun for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Changchun UP Optotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Changchun appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Changchun UP OptotechLtds five-year earnings growth trails the 27 percent YoY shareholder returns - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Changchun Stock
Changchun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changchun Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changchun with respect to the benefits of owning Changchun security.