Ciwen Media (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.81
| 002343 Stock | 7.50 0.18 2.46% |
Ciwen |
Ciwen Media Target Price Odds to finish over 17.81
The tendency of Ciwen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 17.81 or more in 90 days |
| 7.50 | 90 days | 17.81 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ciwen Media to move over 17.81 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Ciwen Media Co probability density function shows the probability of Ciwen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ciwen Media price to stay between its current price of 7.50 and 17.81 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ciwen Media has a beta of 0.2. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ciwen Media average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ciwen Media Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ciwen Media Co has an alpha of 0.5664, implying that it can generate a 0.57 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ciwen Media Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ciwen Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ciwen Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ciwen Media Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ciwen Media is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ciwen Media's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ciwen Media Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ciwen Media within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Ciwen Media Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ciwen Media for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ciwen Media can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ciwen Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Ciwen Media Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ciwen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ciwen Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ciwen Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 474.9 M |
Ciwen Media Technical Analysis
Ciwen Media's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ciwen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ciwen Media Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ciwen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ciwen Media Predictive Forecast Models
Ciwen Media's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ciwen Media's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ciwen Media's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ciwen Media
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ciwen Media for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ciwen Media help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ciwen Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Ciwen Stock
Ciwen Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ciwen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ciwen with respect to the benefits of owning Ciwen Media security.