Jiangsu Changfa (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.86
| 002413 Stock | 5.08 0.01 0.20% |
Jiangsu |
Jiangsu Changfa Target Price Odds to finish below 4.86
The tendency of Jiangsu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4.86 or more in 90 days |
| 5.08 | 90 days | 4.86 | about 76.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jiangsu Changfa to drop to 4.86 or more in 90 days from now is about 76.15 (This Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration probability density function shows the probability of Jiangsu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jiangsu Changfa Refr price to stay between 4.86 and its current price of 5.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration has a beta of -0.17. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Jiangsu Changfa are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration has an alpha of 0.6208, implying that it can generate a 0.62 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Jiangsu Changfa Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jiangsu Changfa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jiangsu Changfa Refr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jiangsu Changfa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jiangsu Changfa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jiangsu Changfa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jiangsu Changfa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Jiangsu Changfa Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jiangsu Changfa for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jiangsu Changfa Refr can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jiangsu Changfa Refr appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (443.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 369.72 M. | |
| About 13.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Jiangsu Changfa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jiangsu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jiangsu Changfa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jiangsu Changfa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B |
Jiangsu Changfa Technical Analysis
Jiangsu Changfa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jiangsu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jiangsu Changfa Refrigeration. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jiangsu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jiangsu Changfa Predictive Forecast Models
Jiangsu Changfa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jiangsu Changfa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jiangsu Changfa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jiangsu Changfa Refr
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jiangsu Changfa for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jiangsu Changfa Refr help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jiangsu Changfa Refr appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (443.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 369.72 M. | |
| About 13.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Jiangsu Stock
Jiangsu Changfa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jiangsu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jiangsu with respect to the benefits of owning Jiangsu Changfa security.