Namyang Dairy (Korea) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 60529.45
| 003920 Stock | 61,600 1,700 2.69% |
Namyang |
Namyang Dairy Target Price Odds to finish below 60529.45
The tendency of Namyang Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 60,529 or more in 90 days |
| 61,600 | 90 days | 60,529 | about 56.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Namyang Dairy to drop to 60,529 or more in 90 days from now is about 56.05 (This Namyang Dairy Products probability density function shows the probability of Namyang Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Namyang Dairy Products price to stay between 60,529 and its current price of 61600.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Namyang Dairy has a beta of 0.0216. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Namyang Dairy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Namyang Dairy Products will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Namyang Dairy Products has an alpha of 0.3957, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Namyang Dairy Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Namyang Dairy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Namyang Dairy Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Namyang Dairy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Namyang Dairy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Namyang Dairy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Namyang Dairy Products.Namyang Dairy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Namyang Dairy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Namyang Dairy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Namyang Dairy Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Namyang Dairy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7,226 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Namyang Dairy Technical Analysis
Namyang Dairy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Namyang Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Namyang Dairy Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Namyang Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Namyang Dairy Predictive Forecast Models
Namyang Dairy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Namyang Dairy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Namyang Dairy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Namyang Dairy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Namyang Dairy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Namyang Dairy options trading.