GemVaxKAEL CoLtd (Korea) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16180.0
| 082270 Stock | KRW 19,500 580.00 3.07% |
GemVaxKAEL |
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Target Price Odds to finish below 16180.0
The tendency of GemVaxKAEL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to W 16,180 or more in 90 days |
| 19,500 | 90 days | 16,180 | about 61.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GemVaxKAEL CoLtd to drop to W 16,180 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.36 (This GemVaxKAEL CoLtd probability density function shows the probability of GemVaxKAEL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GemVaxKAEL CoLtd price to stay between W 16,180 and its current price of W19500.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.92 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 . This suggests GemVaxKAEL CoLtd market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, GemVaxKAEL CoLtd is expected to follow. Moreover GemVaxKAEL CoLtd has an alpha of 1.1608, implying that it can generate a 1.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for GemVaxKAEL CoLtd
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GemVaxKAEL CoLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GemVaxKAEL CoLtd is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GemVaxKAEL CoLtd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GemVaxKAEL CoLtd within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4,119 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GemVaxKAEL CoLtd for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GemVaxKAEL CoLtd can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd has accumulated about 18.72 B in cash with (3.47 B) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GemVaxKAEL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31.8 B | |
| Shares Float | 31.4 M |
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Technical Analysis
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GemVaxKAEL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GemVaxKAEL CoLtd. In general, you should focus on analyzing GemVaxKAEL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd Predictive Forecast Models
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's time-series forecasting models is one of many GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GemVaxKAEL CoLtd's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GemVaxKAEL CoLtd
Checking the ongoing alerts about GemVaxKAEL CoLtd for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GemVaxKAEL CoLtd help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| GemVaxKAEL CoLtd has accumulated about 18.72 B in cash with (3.47 B) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in GemVaxKAEL Stock
GemVaxKAEL CoLtd financial ratios help investors to determine whether GemVaxKAEL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in GemVaxKAEL with respect to the benefits of owning GemVaxKAEL CoLtd security.