Beazer Homes (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 34.06
| 0HMG Stock | 35.16 0.08 0.23% |
Beazer |
Beazer Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 34.06
The tendency of Beazer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 34.06 or more in 90 days |
| 35.16 | 90 days | 34.06 | about 85.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Beazer Homes to drop to 34.06 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.51 (This Beazer Homes USA probability density function shows the probability of Beazer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Beazer Homes USA price to stay between 34.06 and its current price of 35.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.46 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Beazer Homes has a beta of 0.59. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Beazer Homes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Beazer Homes USA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Beazer Homes USA has an alpha of 0.4315, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Beazer Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Beazer Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Beazer Homes USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Beazer Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Beazer Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Beazer Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Beazer Homes USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Beazer Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Beazer Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Beazer Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Beazer Homes USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Beazer Homes USA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Beazer Homes USA is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Victory Capital Management Inc. Buys 197,666 Shares of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. - MarketBeat |
Beazer Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Beazer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Beazer Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Beazer Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 386.3 M |
Beazer Homes Technical Analysis
Beazer Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Beazer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Beazer Homes USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Beazer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Beazer Homes Predictive Forecast Models
Beazer Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Beazer Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Beazer Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Beazer Homes USA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Beazer Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Beazer Homes USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Beazer Homes USA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Beazer Homes USA is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Victory Capital Management Inc. Buys 197,666 Shares of Beazer Homes USA, Inc. - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for Beazer Stock Analysis
When running Beazer Homes' price analysis, check to measure Beazer Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Beazer Homes is operating at the current time. Most of Beazer Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Beazer Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Beazer Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Beazer Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.