CVR Energy (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.36
| 0HRR Stock | 18.67 0.41 2.15% |
CVR |
CVR Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 21.36
The tendency of CVR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 21.36 after 90 days |
| 18.67 | 90 days | 21.36 | about 38.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CVR Energy to stay under 21.36 after 90 days from now is about 38.17 (This CVR Energy probability density function shows the probability of CVR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CVR Energy price to stay between its current price of 18.67 and 21.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.99 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, CVR Energy will likely underperform. Additionally CVR Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CVR Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CVR Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVR Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CVR Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CVR Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CVR Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CVR Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CVR Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.99 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
CVR Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CVR Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CVR Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CVR Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CVR Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Quest Partners LLC Purchases 36,065 Shares of CVR Energy, Inc. - MarketBeat |
CVR Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CVR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CVR Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CVR Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 581 M |
CVR Energy Technical Analysis
CVR Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CVR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CVR Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing CVR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CVR Energy Predictive Forecast Models
CVR Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many CVR Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CVR Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CVR Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about CVR Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CVR Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CVR Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CVR Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| CVR Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Quest Partners LLC Purchases 36,065 Shares of CVR Energy, Inc. - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for CVR Stock Analysis
When running CVR Energy's price analysis, check to measure CVR Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CVR Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CVR Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CVR Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CVR Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CVR Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.