MERCK Kommanditgesells (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 142.95
| 0O14 Stock | 141.60 0.28 0.20% |
MERCK |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Target Price Odds to finish below 142.95
The tendency of MERCK Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 142.95 after 90 days |
| 141.60 | 90 days | 142.95 | about 8.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MERCK Kommanditgesells to stay under 142.95 after 90 days from now is about 8.01 (This MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf probability density function shows the probability of MERCK Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MERCK Kommanditgesells price to stay between its current price of 141.60 and 142.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MERCK Kommanditgesells has a beta of 0.25. This suggests as returns on the market go up, MERCK Kommanditgesells average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MERCK Kommanditgesells Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for MERCK Kommanditgesells
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MERCK Kommanditgesells. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MERCK Kommanditgesells Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MERCK Kommanditgesells is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MERCK Kommanditgesells' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MERCK Kommanditgesells within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MERCK Kommanditgesells for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MERCK Kommanditgesells can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MERCK Kommanditgesells generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Technical Analysis
MERCK Kommanditgesells' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MERCK Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf. In general, you should focus on analyzing MERCK Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MERCK Kommanditgesells Predictive Forecast Models
MERCK Kommanditgesells' time-series forecasting models is one of many MERCK Kommanditgesells' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MERCK Kommanditgesells' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MERCK Kommanditgesells
Checking the ongoing alerts about MERCK Kommanditgesells for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MERCK Kommanditgesells help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MERCK Kommanditgesells generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Tools for MERCK Stock Analysis
When running MERCK Kommanditgesells' price analysis, check to measure MERCK Kommanditgesells' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MERCK Kommanditgesells is operating at the current time. Most of MERCK Kommanditgesells' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MERCK Kommanditgesells' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MERCK Kommanditgesells' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MERCK Kommanditgesells to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.