OCADO GROUP (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.35
| 0OC Stock | 3.77 0.01 0.27% |
OCADO |
OCADO GROUP Target Price Odds to finish below 4.35
The tendency of OCADO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 4.35 after 90 days |
| 3.77 | 90 days | 4.35 | about 75.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of OCADO GROUP to stay under 4.35 after 90 days from now is about 75.27 (This OCADO GROUP probability density function shows the probability of OCADO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of OCADO GROUP price to stay between its current price of 3.77 and 4.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon OCADO GROUP has a beta of 0.18. This suggests as returns on the market go up, OCADO GROUP average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding OCADO GROUP will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally OCADO GROUP has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. OCADO GROUP Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for OCADO GROUP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OCADO GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OCADO GROUP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
OCADO GROUP Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. OCADO GROUP is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the OCADO GROUP's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold OCADO GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of OCADO GROUP within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
OCADO GROUP Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of OCADO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential OCADO GROUP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OCADO GROUP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 751.5 M | |
| Short Term Investments | 1.2 M |
OCADO GROUP Technical Analysis
OCADO GROUP's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. OCADO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of OCADO GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing OCADO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
OCADO GROUP Predictive Forecast Models
OCADO GROUP's time-series forecasting models is one of many OCADO GROUP's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary OCADO GROUP's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards OCADO GROUP in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, OCADO GROUP's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from OCADO GROUP options trading.
Additional Tools for OCADO Stock Analysis
When running OCADO GROUP's price analysis, check to measure OCADO GROUP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OCADO GROUP is operating at the current time. Most of OCADO GROUP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OCADO GROUP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OCADO GROUP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OCADO GROUP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.