BK Variable (Spain) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 17.39
| 0P0000120T | 17.36 0.06 0.34% |
0P0000120T |
BK Variable Target Price Odds to finish below 17.39
The tendency of 0P0000120T Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 17.39 after 90 days |
| 17.36 | 90 days | 17.39 | about 88.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BK Variable to stay under 17.39 after 90 days from now is about 88.46 (This BK Variable Internacional probability density function shows the probability of 0P0000120T Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BK Variable Internacional price to stay between its current price of 17.36 and 17.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BK Variable has a beta of 0.8. This suggests as returns on the market go up, BK Variable average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BK Variable Internacional will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally BK Variable Internacional has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BK Variable Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BK Variable
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BK Variable Internacional. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BK Variable Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BK Variable is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BK Variable's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BK Variable Internacional, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BK Variable within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
BK Variable Technical Analysis
BK Variable's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 0P0000120T Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BK Variable Internacional. In general, you should focus on analyzing 0P0000120T Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BK Variable Predictive Forecast Models
BK Variable's time-series forecasting models is one of many BK Variable's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BK Variable's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BK Variable in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BK Variable's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BK Variable options trading.
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