Allan Gray (South Africa) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 142.20
| 0P0000IR11 | 138.09 0.50 0.36% |
Allan |
Allan Gray Target Price Odds to finish below 142.20
The tendency of Allan Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 142.20 after 90 days |
| 138.09 | 90 days | 142.20 | about 88.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allan Gray to stay under 142.20 after 90 days from now is about 88.43 (This Allan Gray probability density function shows the probability of Allan Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allan Gray price to stay between its current price of 138.09 and 142.20 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Allan Gray has a beta of 0.48. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Allan Gray average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Allan Gray will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Allan Gray has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Allan Gray Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Allan Gray
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allan Gray. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allan Gray Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allan Gray is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allan Gray's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allan Gray , one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allan Gray within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Allan Gray Technical Analysis
Allan Gray's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allan Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allan Gray . In general, you should focus on analyzing Allan Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allan Gray Predictive Forecast Models
Allan Gray's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allan Gray's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allan Gray's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Allan Gray in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Allan Gray's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Allan Gray options trading.
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