Absa Multi (South Africa) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 2.54
| 0P000182K2 | 2.62 0.01 0.38% |
Absa |
Absa Multi Target Price Odds to finish below 2.54
The tendency of Absa Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 2.54 or more in 90 days |
| 2.62 | 90 days | 2.54 | about 37.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Absa Multi to drop to 2.54 or more in 90 days from now is about 37.76 (This Absa Multi Managed probability density function shows the probability of Absa Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Absa Multi Managed price to stay between 2.54 and its current price of 2.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Absa Multi has a beta of 0.0804. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Absa Multi average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Absa Multi Managed will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Absa Multi Managed has an alpha of 0.0585, implying that it can generate a 0.0585 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Absa Multi Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Absa Multi
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absa Multi Managed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Absa Multi Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Absa Multi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Absa Multi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Absa Multi Managed, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Absa Multi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Absa Multi Technical Analysis
Absa Multi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Absa Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Absa Multi Managed. In general, you should focus on analyzing Absa Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Absa Multi Predictive Forecast Models
Absa Multi's time-series forecasting models is one of many Absa Multi's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Absa Multi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Absa Multi in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Absa Multi's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Absa Multi options trading.
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