Azvalor Global (Germany) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 200.58
| 0P00018HSS | 200.08 0.00 0.00% |
Azvalor |
Azvalor Global Target Price Odds to finish below 200.58
The tendency of Azvalor Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 200.58 after 90 days |
| 200.08 | 90 days | 200.58 | about 83.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Azvalor Global to stay under 200.58 after 90 days from now is about 83.22 (This Azvalor Global Value probability density function shows the probability of Azvalor Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Azvalor Global Value price to stay between its current price of 200.08 and 200.58 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.9 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Azvalor Global Value has a beta of -0.0147. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Azvalor Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Azvalor Global Value is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Azvalor Global Value has an alpha of 0.0456, implying that it can generate a 0.0456 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Azvalor Global Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Azvalor Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Azvalor Global Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Azvalor Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Azvalor Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Azvalor Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Azvalor Global Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Azvalor Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Azvalor Global Technical Analysis
Azvalor Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Azvalor Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Azvalor Global Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Azvalor Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Azvalor Global Predictive Forecast Models
Azvalor Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Azvalor Global's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Azvalor Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Azvalor Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Azvalor Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Azvalor Global options trading.
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