Hong Leong (Malaysia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.48
| 1082 Stock | 18.50 0.10 0.54% |
Hong |
Hong Leong Target Price Odds to finish over 19.48
The tendency of Hong Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 19.48 or more in 90 days |
| 18.50 | 90 days | 19.48 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hong Leong to move over 19.48 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Hong Leong Financial probability density function shows the probability of Hong Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hong Leong Financial price to stay between its current price of 18.50 and 19.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Hong Leong Financial has a beta of -0.0777. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Hong Leong are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Hong Leong Financial is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Hong Leong Financial has an alpha of 0.0673, implying that it can generate a 0.0673 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Hong Leong Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Hong Leong
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hong Leong Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hong Leong Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hong Leong is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hong Leong's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hong Leong Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hong Leong within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Hong Leong Technical Analysis
Hong Leong's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hong Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hong Leong Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hong Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hong Leong Predictive Forecast Models
Hong Leong's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hong Leong's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hong Leong's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hong Leong in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hong Leong's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hong Leong options trading.