AGV Products (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.97
| 1217 Stock | TWD 12.00 0.05 0.42% |
AGV |
AGV Products Target Price Odds to finish below 11.97
The tendency of AGV Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 11.97 or more in 90 days |
| 12.00 | 90 days | 11.97 | about 26.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AGV Products to drop to NT$ 11.97 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.99 (This AGV Products Corp probability density function shows the probability of AGV Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AGV Products Corp price to stay between NT$ 11.97 and its current price of NT$12.0 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AGV Products Corp has a beta of -0.17. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AGV Products are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AGV Products Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AGV Products Corp has an alpha of 0.0211, implying that it can generate a 0.0211 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AGV Products Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AGV Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGV Products Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AGV Products Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AGV Products is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AGV Products' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AGV Products Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AGV Products within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
AGV Products Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AGV Products for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AGV Products Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AGV Products Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| AGV Products Corp has accumulated 3.44 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 81.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGV Products Corp has a current ratio of 0.73, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AGV Products until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AGV Products' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AGV Products Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGV to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AGV Products' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 25.0% of AGV Products shares are owned by insiders or employees |
AGV Products Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AGV Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AGV Products' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGV Products' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 494.5 M |
AGV Products Technical Analysis
AGV Products' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGV Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AGV Products Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGV Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AGV Products Predictive Forecast Models
AGV Products' time-series forecasting models is one of many AGV Products' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AGV Products' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AGV Products Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about AGV Products for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AGV Products Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AGV Products Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| AGV Products Corp has accumulated 3.44 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 81.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGV Products Corp has a current ratio of 0.73, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AGV Products until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AGV Products' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AGV Products Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGV to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AGV Products' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 25.0% of AGV Products shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for AGV Stock Analysis
When running AGV Products' price analysis, check to measure AGV Products' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGV Products is operating at the current time. Most of AGV Products' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGV Products' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGV Products' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGV Products to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.