Lien Hwa (Taiwan) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 58.43
| 1229 Stock | TWD 58.60 0.90 1.56% |
Lien |
Lien Hwa Target Price Odds to finish below 58.43
The tendency of Lien Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 58.43 or more in 90 days |
| 58.60 | 90 days | 58.43 | about 7.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lien Hwa to drop to NT$ 58.43 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.87 (This Lien Hwa Industrial probability density function shows the probability of Lien Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lien Hwa Industrial price to stay between NT$ 58.43 and its current price of NT$58.6 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Lien Hwa has a beta of 0.14. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Lien Hwa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Lien Hwa Industrial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Lien Hwa Industrial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Lien Hwa Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lien Hwa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lien Hwa Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lien Hwa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lien Hwa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lien Hwa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lien Hwa Industrial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lien Hwa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.3 |
Lien Hwa Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lien Hwa for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lien Hwa Industrial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lien Hwa Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lien Hwa Industrial has accumulated 1.2 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.21, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Lien Hwa Industrial has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Lien Hwa until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Lien Hwa's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Lien Hwa Industrial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Lien to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Lien Hwa's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 46.0% of Lien Hwa shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Lien Hwa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lien Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lien Hwa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lien Hwa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B |
Lien Hwa Technical Analysis
Lien Hwa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lien Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lien Hwa Industrial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lien Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lien Hwa Predictive Forecast Models
Lien Hwa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lien Hwa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lien Hwa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lien Hwa Industrial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lien Hwa for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lien Hwa Industrial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lien Hwa Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Lien Hwa Industrial has accumulated 1.2 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.21, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Lien Hwa Industrial has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Lien Hwa until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Lien Hwa's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Lien Hwa Industrial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Lien to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Lien Hwa's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 46.0% of Lien Hwa shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Lien Stock Analysis
When running Lien Hwa's price analysis, check to measure Lien Hwa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lien Hwa is operating at the current time. Most of Lien Hwa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lien Hwa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lien Hwa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lien Hwa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.